Brexit! The Day After Tomorrow!

Tomorrow is THE DAY! Tomorrow the UK decides whether to Remain or to Leave the EU. The main factor that affects anyone’s decision is THE FEAR! The Fear about what will happen after the Leave. And it is true, that, in fact, it is unknowable. This is the reason why the Remainers are heavily and, indeed, very abusively exploit just this to paint an incredibly grim picture of the Day After Tomorrow! And even though there is certain uncertainty, all those scenarios and numbers provided by them are no less than malicious lie. And this blog post is just to try to explain some of those things. And the reason for this post is – WHATEVER are their arguments they DON’T  HOLD WATER! 

The Day After Tomorrow is a 2004 American climate science fiction disaster film… It is, obviously, a made up story and seemingly has nothing to do with the Brexit.

And yet, when listening to those supporting the Remain Campaign, it seems that the very next day after the referendum, in case the Leave position will have won, what will happen to the economy of the UK is no less than the one pictured in that movie. Absolutely everything will look grim according to them, starting from failed businesses, lost jobs and taxes and, for that reason, benefits, and the impact will last for eternity… “Naturally”, children and grandchildren will be the first to face the reality of “That Day”!!!

What is interesting, all may be rather the other way round…, IF YOU TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

Anyway, the lack of comprehension of whole picture is typical to both sides. Still, the Remainers have completely lost the shame and are so clearly and openly lying and painting the day of the exit as the Apocalypses, that you start to wonder how they actually have got into their positions of power!

Anyway, lot us look at some so-called points of those that have surfaced in recent months. Let us destroy their arguments.

1. What will happen if the UK leaves?

The short answer is – nothing. Absolutely nothing. The leaving itself will only untie the hands of all future British governments in case they will decide to make some changes in certain areas. Apart from that ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING WILL REMAIN THE SAME, just being legally out of the EU.

Those who frighten people with grim economic prospects must remember one thing before they bring it up – the EU gains from the UK so much more, and not those poor 160 million a week that are lost due to the EU fees, but because of the trade balance the EU has with the UK. And the EU sells to the UK products for some 292 billion a year. The UK sells to the EU products for 224 billion a year.

THE DEFICIT IN THIS BALANCE IS WHOOPING 68 BILLION A YEAR.

For those people who do not understand this – it means that 68 billion a year simply are lost every year in the trade with the EU. They leave the country and never come back. It is as if the UK is simply financing the well-being of the EU by sending to them every year 68 billion.

And guess what! The UK does not have that money. What does the UK do to cover these negative balance? Right! The UK borrows… Possibly, it borrows from those it buys products totaling to those 68 billion… But borrowing comes at a cost. Not only you have to return the money borrowed, you also have to pay interest. And year after year it becomes bigger and bigger burden on the shoulders of the ordinary working people.

So the EU clearly wins in the existing trade situation with the UK. And for this reason they will never do anything to hurt Britain. Just the opposite. They will do their absolutely best to preserve the Status Quo.

For this reason we can absolutely clearly state – in case of Leaving the EU the UK economically WILL LOSE NOTHING. Only regain its Independence.

And that, actually, is the biggest fear of all. Because leaving itself has nothing to do with the economical gains or loses. What matters is – what the reigning government will do with this new Independence.

And here we have a problem. The problem is – the situation could have been much better already even within the EU. Of course, uncontrolled immigration can still have a strong effect on everything. But my point is, if they have never been able (Conservatives or Labour) to build a strong and prosperous economy for all hard-working, they never will. And if the governors fail, it is very handy for them to point out that it is the EU who is in control of everything. So only failed politicians are happy to stay in this useless union.

Once again – leaving itself will change nothing. And even when left the politicians could manage to make such agreements with the EU that actually preserve the Status Quo and will make all the efforts of leaving a completely ridiculous story. But only outside the EU the hands of the UK will be untied and, in case a really strong statesman comes to the power he can do incredibly good things to all in Britain. Unfortunately, it is impossible to spot any such politician at the political horizon in the UK at the moment… So the opportunities will not be used wisely…

2. Will be jobs lost in case of leaving?

It depends.

It heavily depends on what I have described previously. My prediction is – nothing will change, not even the immigration, because politicians are too afraid to make decisions. And they are afraid to make them because they actually do not have a clue about what and why and how affects those processes that make nations rich or poor. And that is definitely not a topic for the blog post.

Nevertheless, any failure of the existing governments to build a strong and prosperous economy for will be followed by blaming the leaving of the EU.

In case the war of tariffs between the EU and the UK will start (which is nearly absolutely impossible as I described previously in this post), one must expect that some jobs definitely will be lost. But it should not stop anyone from voting to leave.

And the reason for that is this. If this “War of Tariffs” started, the UK can only win. Because it will balance the trade deficit with the EU. And that means – more money, more fruits of the work of British people will remain in the country, making a great “financial soil” for any further economic development.

Imagine this. Tariffs are set up from both sides. British car manufacturers and cheese makers can no longer sell anything in the EU. But the same applies to the producers and manufacturers of the EU. They can no longer sell anything in the UK. So, certainly, some traders of BMW will lose their jobs.

What is there to celebrate? Simpls.

The local market will once again open itself for the local car manufacturers and cheese makers. And as it appears, in this case the market and the opportunities will be even bigger and better than in that bloody “Single Market”

So again. Some jobs will definitely be lost, but many others will re-appear. And that is only the beginning of the story.

If the immigration will be stopped and the local workers will be up and running again, they will create more new jobs in other areas, including by boosting the local services. It is absolutely win-win for the UK.

The thing is, when certain sectors of economy are developing and creating jobs, they also increase in the country number of people who have a high purchase-ability. And that is extremely good for the small services. When small services start to earn better, they themselves start to spend more money on different goods. And better those goods are produced in the same country, because through this they again strengthen their own country… Scrap BMW, buy 2 Vauxhall cars…

And I have not even mentioned yet what impact it all would have on the budget of the state. If economy is flourishing, the state gets really good money in taxes, and increasing number of people are earning increasing amount of money… Put simple, the income for the government grows, the expenses diminish. I would call this an economical paradise. I would be happy to be a part of any country that is organized in this way. And it can come about if all the rules of the market are set up properly. And in this case there would be left only one enemy for such a country – immigration.

3. Immigration, is it good for the economy or just the opposite?

There is no denying, that there can be certain benefits from certain levels of immigration. Still, when uncontrolled, it can and will do a great damage to any economy. the benefits can only be by inviting some extremely high-profile specialists or experts to the country IN ORDER TO RISE ITS OWN LEVELS OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE. The rest of the lack of the workforce must be dealt with by managing the existing human resources.

A small shortage of workers is, actually, very healthy for any economy. It forces the employers to find the best ways to organize the jobs and to rise the productivity. This shortage of workers is extremely good for the levels of pay and, surprisingly, the workers rights.

It really is very simple. If there is a person who is hardworking and talented, and he knows that, he can always ask for a better salary and work conditions for he can always leave the bad place and start somewhere else without losing anything. The shortage of workers is one of the best situations to boost the productivity and pay and workers rights in general. It should be celebrated by any government. Of course, exceptions apply. But that is another story.

Huge immigration, as it is the case in the UK right now, is forcing absolutely all ordinary common people to low wages, even illegal employment and many out of the work altogether. It also rises the housing prices, which become beyond the reach for them.

The country can have the best workers rights in the whole world, but what use are they if the competition and despair is so big that it brings the pay down, the housing prices up, and there still are 10 people to each place to any job?

I can only repeat what I have described already previously, but apply this to this particular situation.

So imagine, the immigration is extremely high, with all these side-effects like low wages and high housing prices and long queue of desperate people willing to earn at least something. Imagine, you are a plumber. A really good one. You normally work with your own customers. And than one day they say to you – look, either you provide all the services for half a price from usual, or we will employ another guy for that price.

And that price of others is low simply because there are too many people willing to take over that niche and they are desperate for that, there are many of them.

The consequences of this would be, that you, as a successful plumber, will lose a significant amount of income and will be incapable to do anything about it. But the person that took over your customers, would not be too rich also. It means, the jobs will be accomplished, but the only winner in this situation would be the one who needs the extra money least of all – the rich guy, who can now dictate his conditions and by this make himself even richer.

The rest, vast amount of ordinary people, would be losers. And not only them. Remember the vicious circle from previous stories? Yes, it works both ways. Either everything in one chain serves as a blessing to each other, or the curse. If the general income of people drops, they start to use less other services and are less willing to spend more for better service if can not avoid it completely. All hairdressers, restaurants, entertainers etc. will suffer as a consequence.

Do you remember how blessed and fair economical principles not only make all hard-working people rich and improve their workers rights and at the end of the circle make rich the state itself? Yes, here is just a complete opposite of all that. No matter what rights one gets on the paper. When income of ordinary people drops, all trade turnovers drop, along with the tax revenue for the state. And because people income becomes so small, they turn to the state for the help. So the state gets less income and more expenses.

The economic situation like this is a perfect soil for all kinds of criminal activities also. But that means more damaged societies, a need for bigger police and prosecuting forces etc, which also increases the expenses of the state.

So uncontrolled numbers of immigration are extremely dangerous for any economy. And within the EU there is no chance to change that. I perfectly understand those people who bring this up as their main reason. They are absolutely right.

Once again – unfortunately, the immigration will not change simply because the UK will leave the EU. It only gives the country a theoretical possibility to do that. And for that reason the country will be in urgent need to find just the person who can deliver whatever is needed…

4. Does the country need the trade to become a rich and prosperous?

The short answer is – yes and no.

There are many countries in the world that are very limited with different resources. Let us look at most Eastern European countries. They do not have their own material resources, energy resources, their technologies and manufacturing is weak, their inner markets are too small for evolving of high-tech products. They definitely need some kind of trade in order to develop. There is no other option for them. Unfortunately. these countries become mainly agricultural countries. One may ask – what is bad about that, and he would be right to do that. The problem is, that the high-tech products have much higher additional value added to them compared to agricultural products. It means, when one country exchanges its food products to other country’s high-tech products, the food-producing country is always losing huge amounts of money. It is unfair trade. But there is no chance for those poor guys… they are being robbed day in day out. And joining the EU has changed nothing…

The same DOES NOT APPLY to countries that have their own resources of all kinds, huge inner market (and 65 million of British inner market is huge…). These countries, if ruled properly, can reach extremely good results within themselves. They do not need to have an access to any other market to flourish and to make sure a real prosperity is available for anyone who is willing to work within it.

Think about the EU market. If it is so important and makes anyone very prosperous, why it did not happen to countries like Portugal? Why Greece is in all that trouble? Why Eastern European countries can not get out of certain poverty? Because the story about need of the Single EU market in order to become prosperous is a myth. Because the principles in which the EU is working is highly unfair and is not meant to help anyone, but to keep all under control, to suck out whatever is possible from the weakest in this union… And the UK, unfortunately, is being sacked out by the Single Market ever since it joined the EU…

And on top of that, for those who still think that the trade is necessary, I would like to remind, that the UK is a part of so-called Commonwealth countries, and have a trade relationship with an enormous markets…

5. The Leave Camp does not have a plan for what to do in case of the Brexit!

It may well be true. But do they need any such plans, knowing that the Eu and, indeed, the rest of the world not only are not going to punish the UK for its decision, but they will do their best to find a new deals…?

In case the UK leaves, it will have some 2-10 years to work out and implement any plans they will consider necessary. Leaving itself will change nothing. So why should one have any plan if nothing changes after a particular decision of his? This decision will only untie the hands for the future decisions, and has no other complications.

As I already have said on quite a few occasions – the existing politicians can even make sure the Status Quo is preserved…

What bothers me is – if the Remainers win, do they have any plans what to do with the growing numbers of immigration and new countries joining the EU, like Turkey?

6. Turkey

It is incredible how Remainers are lying. Sadiq Khan said – Turkey is never going to join the EU, despite the highest EU officials talking about it from time to time. I don’t hate Turks. I know some of them myself. I believe they are perfectly normal people. The only problem, there is 80 million of them and they are poor… When the borders will be opened, they will rush to the Europe.

I was listening to what George Osborn said about Turkey. It was so amazing. He played out the same trick as President Clinton once did when asked – do you have any relationship with Monika Levinsky? He replied that he does not have any relationship with her… And it was both, the truth and the lie. The lie because he had had some relationship with her for sure. But at that particular point everything was over, so technically he did not lie. It means that in that particular moment, in which he did not have any relationship with her, he felt it is correct that he does not have anything with her. Only it was not the answer to the soul of the question.

The same trick was used by George Osborn. The LBC presenter asked him whether he is going to veto the Turkey from joining the EU, he replayed – If there was a vote on Turkey TODAY I would veto it… Or he said something similar to this.

Who cares about today? What about tomorrow? What about in 10 or 20 years?

Those people really keep the electorate for sheep. What a disgusting disrespect for their own nation.

I once thought that it would be ok for Cameron and Osborn to stay in the office if the Leave wins. Now I am adamant – after this disgusting and scaremongering and lying campaign they both have to leave for good. Britain deserves better. Britain has better people for those roles.

The Prime Minister is gone. Long live the Prime Minister… and his sidekick… lol…

7. Working and studying and traveling in the EU.

Some people did bring up this question.

Come on, people. You surely don’t  think that leaving the EU will bring up a Hadrian wall between the EU and the UK?

All these activities have been available to all who has money before the Eu and will exist after it will become a story in the history books. And after all there is the US and Canada and many other countries in the world, that are not in the union with this artificial and ugly and unfair monster called the Eu and people keep traveling to and from…

8. If one thinks about his children and grandchildren…

If one thinks about his children and grandchildren, he absolutely must vote to leave the EU. It is not even that there are some good and bad things about this union. It is absolutely good for Britain and all its future generations to be outside the EU. Of course, terms and conditions apply, if you want to make it a success story!

9. Low prices.

This is quite often brought up as something very positive that we all gain from being in the EU – low prices. I have already covered it in the post talking about the Steel Industry. But this is an important factor. So let us cover it once again.

Most of all I am surprised that it is Labour, who mainly see these low prices as something very good. The problem is, that in short-term perspective it really seem to be the best possible for all. But only in short-term perspective. And anyone who understand economic processes should know that it is very harmful in long-term perspective. Sadly, knowing that nearly all politicians are happy about those low prices, we can assume, that the country is run by complete dilettantes. Happiness about low prices, that are gained by importing products from abroad, is a clear proof that we are ruled by people who do not understand a broader and long-term economics.

How do you get low prices in open markets?

The short story is – by crippling the Free Market Principle, actually, completely disabling it.

Know this. In many countries there are no rules and conditions that protect workers right and pay. For this reason it is possible in those countries to produce far much cheaper products than in most Western countries. So for this reason they can manufacture nearly anything cheaper Western countries.

Of course, there are high-tech products, but even those slowly are being taken over by those cheap countries. And even if not, it has a profound effect on whole Western economies.

Initially it all was started by greed. Greedy manufacturers wanted more profit and started to move their plants abroad. Initially, when few of them moved over there, it had no consequences apart from huge profits for the owners of the businesses. It caused many other manufacturers to move abroad.

What are the consequences?

Huge numbers of people in the West have lost their jobs. Many of them moved into different services, increasing the competition there, with all the consequences of lowering the pays in there as well. So the income level for great proportions of society dropped. Also dropped the tax revenue for the state. Also the expenses for the state in terms of benefits grew. And the vicious circle has been created… Western countries started to sink into debts… And all in the name of the greed of some manufacturers.

Many economists say, that it does not matter, because those countries of cheap labour will earn more and start to buy some other products from West, and in this way everything will be balanced. The problem is, in those countries the pay is miserable and the workers can not afford to buy too much from Western goods, whatever has been left. So there definitely is a dis-balance.

Of course, moving the plants abroad means LOWER PRICES… But what is the point, if it comes at such a cost???!!!

When the Soviet Union collapsed, people from those soviet regions started to travel to Europe countries and were struck by the levels of prosperity. At the same time there were some who kept saying that it only seems to be good for despite their good salaries, the prices in those countries are extremely high compared to those in the Soviet Union…

I have been meditating on many economic issues including this phenomenon in order to find out what is what in all those figures. And this is what I have understood.

If the economy is organized properly, the prices on products can rise up to 3 times. But at the same time not only the quality of the products rise, but also the income of all involved in the production and servicing areas alike. And this rise of the income tend to be some 10 times higher than the prices on products… And the same works the other way too. If the low prices are achieved by low salaries, than even if all the products are 3 times cheaper, the ability to purchase them can be fallen those 10 times…

All I wanted to say is – there is nothing to celebrate if one has a cheap products. It rather says that anyone supporting low price policies should be kept very far away from the running the country, for he does not understand the cost for these low products.

Of course, if one is already pushed to very low-income, and he is said that certain decision would make the prices rise, he would naturally be terrified and do what he can to avoid that. By his decision he would stop his own prospects to become prosperous in the future. It is understandable that ordinary people who don’t understand the economics have fear from that. But experienced politicians and economists surely should understand all this. But no, the MAJORITY OF ALL POLITICIANS AND LEADING  ECONOMISTS tend to support the Low price economics that are damaging to ordinary common workers and the state alike.

And this is the biggest challenge to all modern societies. Because the greed of some manufacturers who care only about huge profits in short-term perspective make them blind and deaf towards the realities of economic principles. They hear only themselves. they hear only whatever their greed is telling them. And the processes of globalization, including the project called “the EU”, are to satisfy these greedy desires…

10. The minimum wage…

Ironically, some may point out that it is just the UK where the minimum wage exists, as if it shows how the government cares about its people. The problem is, that this artificially made minimum wage is increasing immigration heavily. It must have been introduced not to care about the people, but to win elections. And even the Conservative party worked towards increasing it in order to win.

The problem is, they also promised to reduce the immigration. Most probably their plans were to scrap as much as possible the benefits and put all the responsibility of the income on employers. They must have believed that reducing benefits will reduce the expenditure of the state and reduce the immigration itself… Unfortunately with the minimum wage of 9 pounds, which is on the way, most of those immigrants will not need to have any benefits. They are used to harsh life. And such a generous minimum wage, which is not dictated by the principles of the Free Market, will make them very happy.

Unfortunately many employers will start to hide the real numbers of workers and employ them illegally. It will create all sorts of problems. But definitely will not stop the immigration.

On top of that this wage, in such an open and globalized world, will make the producers of the UK less competitive in the global market. So either they start to employ people illegally with smaller wages, or they can lose in this competition.

The minimum wage at this height and in completely opened markets will endanger even further British businesses. A good minimums wage can exist only in a very protected inner market, not in the borderless unions… So again – it will increase the immigration and reduce the competitiveness of the country… Both of these factors are extremely damaging for the general well-being of then majority of the people in this particular market…

I am telling you – the country is being run by idiots, if we understand the word idiot as a person who does not know much about things he is dealing with.

11. A complete lack of a Free Market.

This is another reason to leave the EU.

Of course, it is not particularly problem of the EU. It is a problem of the globalization in general. And the EU is just another project of the globalization.

In this project there is specifically one condition that affects all of the members and annihilates the Free Market principle completely. It is the Monetary policy. We looked at negative balance in trade previously. And that, if the Market is really free and organized properly, should never happened… The big debts and paralyzed Free Market principle are possible only under the existing monetary policy.

In this policy countries have some obligations to ensure they will exchange as much their own currency to the foreign one as there will be demand. And to achieve that they either have to earn all those currencies or to borrow. Most countries borrow.

Why there is this need for that money?

The problem itself comes from the condition, that the countries have to ensure these currencies must be kept at certain prices. But the currencies are just another product in the Free Market. In normal situation, if you have not enough of them, than the price of certain currency which you need goes up. Because in the Free Market it is the relationship between the demand and the supply that determines the price. But by the request to keep them stable it has been disabled. And by this the whole Free Market, for this is an extremely important part in the economy.

As I said, to make sure the country has enough of those other currencies, they have to borrow them in most occasions.

When this “stability of prices of currencies” have been realized, all the foreign products can enter the country easily and push out the local manufacturers, which means lost jobs and income for people, businesses and the state. And it is only possible through this borrowing.

It is cynical. But we really can put it this way – the national governments borrow money in order to annihilate or make difficult the life of national manufacturing…

Societies tend to think that all that borrowing is needed to cover the social needs of the poorer society. It is not true. In the UK they buy from the EU 800k cars annually more than they sell to the EU… If one car costs 20k, than the amount of foreign currency needed to cover this dis-balance builds up to 16 billion a Year… But there are so many other products that are being imported under these conditions…

What I wanted to say is – the borrowing is needed not for the social care of the poor in the society, but to satisfy the desires of the rich for the foreign goods. And that is achieved by paying for that with lost national jobs and levels of income. Ironically, the debts hand equally on absolutely every person in the particular society, be it the poor, the ugly or even babies. So it means, that the rich are enjoying the benefits of such economical mechanisms, while the weakest people of the society is paying for that all very heavily…

Conclusion.

Leaving the EU itself will change nothing. But it will untie the hands of the national government. And in this situation it will become, at least theoretically, possible to build a good and prosperous economy in which every hard-working man will be paid what he deserves. The few enemies of the prosperity of the country are – monetary policies imposed by some global organizations like IMF, WTO (and the EU, of course…) etc., which is further damaged by high immigration. Of course, the way the all created wealth is being shared is very important too.

The only problem, I have never seen ANY POLITICIAN IN WHOLE WORLD WHO DOES UNDERSTAND THESE THINGS AND ARE TRULY AND GENUINELY WILLING TO IMPLEMENT THEM. So leaving the EU itself will change nothing. What changes, is the decisions taken afterwards…

For this reason I am saying to you – A VOTE TO LEAVE IS THE ONLY RIGHT DECISION, WHATEVER COMES AFTER…

 

 

 

 

 

 

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